NFL odds, picks for Week 5: Proven computer model loving Chargers and Cardinals

TY Hilton is out against the Patriots on Thursday Night Football, while Rob Gronkowski (ankle) and Josh Gordon (hamstring) are questionable for New England. All that uncertainty has wreaked havoc on the NFL odds for Colts vs. Patriots, pushing the line from Patriots -7.5 to -10. In Cincinnati, running back Joe Mixon could return from a hamstring injury of his own, and bettors are pouncing on the Bengals, moving the spread from -6 to -6.5. The Week 5 NFL odds board also shows the Rams and Jared Goff, fresh off a five-touchdown gem last Thursday, as touchdown favorites over the Seahawks in Seattle, down from 7.5. With NFL odds in flux, you need to see the Week 6 NFL picks and predictions from SportsLine’s advanced computer model.

SportsLine’s proprietary computer model went 176-80 last season and beat over 95 percent of CBS Office Pool players in 2016 and ’17. It also performed better than 98 percent of experts tracked by NFLPickWatch.com during that span. Additionally, it went 48-34 on A-rated picks against the spread last season, and $100 bettors who have followed it the past two seasons are up nearly $4,000. 

It went a blistering 11-4 straight up in a wild Week 4 and nailed three of its four top-rated spread picks, including Kansas City (-3.5) over Denver on Monday Night Football. It’s now 10-3 on top-rated picks this season, extending its run to 58-37. 

Now it has simulated every snap 10,000 times and its Week 5 NFL picks are in. 

One of the Week 5 NFL picks the model is all over: the Chargers cover as 5.5-point home favorites over the Raiders. 

The Raiders notched their first win since head coach Jon Gruden’s return last week compliments of late mistakes by the Browns. However, the model doesn’t expect that momentum to carry over. Instead, look for the 2-2 Chargers to get back over .500 with a convincing win.

Fueled by a projection of well over 300 yards and two touchdowns for Philip Rivers, not only does the SportsLine model expect the Chargers to cover in 60 percent of simulations, it also has them winning 32-22 to cover with ease. That final score also means there’s value on the Over (53.5), so you can lock that pick in as well. The model is also calling for Chargers running back Melvin Gordon to shred the Raiders’ run defense, accounting for almost 130 yards from scrimmage and at least one end zone visit.

Another Week 5 NFL pick the model likes: the Cardinals (+4.5) stay within the spread against the division-rival 49ers.

Both NFC West teams are struggling as they head into Week 5, with the Cardinals winless and the 49ers at 1-3 having lost QB Jimmy Garoppolo for the season. And the model expects a plodding game, with a projected final score of 21-18 and the Under (41) hitting in nearly 60 percent of simulations. 

Statistically, the model projects similar performances from starting quarterbacks Josh Rosen and C.J. Beathard. Both are predicted to throw for around 230 yards with a touchdown and an interception. However, it’s an improved Cardinals defense allowing just 18 points per game in its last two contests (both covers) that helps Arizona stay within the margin in nearly 55 percent of simulations and win outright (+170 on the money line) 42 percent of the time.

The model also has a strong selection for the rematch of last season’s NFC Championship Game between the Eagles and Vikings, and is calling for a team with Super Bowl aspirations to get a huge scare at home. 

What NFL picks can you make with confidence in Week 5? And what Super Bowl contender gets a huge scare? Check out the latest NFL odds below and then visit SportsLine to see which NFL teams are winning more than 50 percent of simulations, all from the model that has beaten 98 percent of experts over the past two years.

Indianapolis Colts at New England Patriots (-10, 51.5)
Miami Dolphins at Cincinnati Bengals (-6.5, 49.5)
Jacksonville Jaguars at Kansas City Chiefs (-3, 49)
New York Giants at Carolina Panthers (-7, 44.5)
Denver Broncos at New York Jets (-1, 42.5)
Atlanta Falcons at Pittsburgh Steelers (-3, 57.5)
Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns (+3, 47)
Tennessee Titans at Buffalo Bills (+3.5, 39)
Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions (+1, 51)
Oakland Raiders at Los Angeles Chargers (-5.5, 53.5)
Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers (-4.5, 41)
Minnesota Vikings at Philadelphia Eagles (-3, 44.5)
Los Angeles Rams at Seattle Seahawks (+7, 50.5)
Dallas Cowboys at Houston Texans (-3, 45.5)
Washington Redskins at New Orleans Saints (-6.5, 52.5)